OCTOBER PREVIEW

Analysis by Matt Harris with Craig Methven So far we’ve watched a mixed start to the Season as the new-look squad pulls together and gels, although the end of September did show an uptick with two wins on the bounce. As club captain Jason Bourne pointed out in his online blog at the end of September, the side has had enough games to get to know each other now, and as October arrives it’s time to get the business done on the pitch. Although there’s a need for more consistency than the first two months offered, analysis of the past seven seasons shows that at the onset of autumn, that’s not always been the flavour of the month where The Wells are concerned. The side will need to enter the month with priorities firmly fixed as October also brings cup action to Culverden. League Cup action (home to Cray Valley PM, 14/10) and Kent Senior Trophy action (home to Woodstock, 18/10) will both factor into the equation. The Month of the Bourne Before we move into the facts and figures of recent Octobers, let’s return to Bourne for a while. This is a very special time for him, and the club. At the end of September Jason became the record holder at Tunbridge Wells for the most first team appearances. Keep an eye open for the club to officially mark this achievement during October. Until Saturday 28th September, Tony Atkins held the record having called it a day after 410 appearances over more than 13 years with the club. Atkins was a midfielder (and later sweeper), and he captained the club’s only title-winning side back in 1984/85. As the record passes from one Culverden legend to another, www.tunbridgewellsfc.com contacted Atkins who said, “Jason’s been a great servant to the club over the years. I know Jason, and I’m pleased the award’s gone to him. It couldn’t have gone to a better man. “Jason’s what I would call a proper footballer, and the time he’s spent at The Wells is a tribute to him - it’s rare for players to spend most of their career at one club in today’s football. The fact that Jason has speaks volumes about the type of guy he is – he’s a true club man. Records are there to be broken, and I’m delighted it’s Jason who takes over from me.” Touching words and a glowing tribute; it is hoped that Atkins will be an honoured guest at a home match at Culverden soon. The Ghost of Octobers Past As the warm summer afternoons give way to the cooler October weather, let’s take a look at how The Wells have fared in the league in October during the past few seasons… It’s fair to say that we’ve seen some mixed Octobers with the best coming in 2010/11 season when The Wells won 10 points and scored 16 goals from 4 games (an average of 2.5 points and 4 goals per game, see Charts A and B). The worst Octobers in our timeline came in 2009/10 and 2011/12 season when an average of just one point per game was won (The Wells drew all three of their October league fixtures in these seasons and were also the most goal-shy, scoring just 1.66 goals per game). Defensively, The Wells were at their most generous in our October records last season, conceding 8 league goals (five in one match against Cray Valley PM at Culverden), but were equally mean during 2009/10, 2011/12 and 2012/13 seasons, conceding 5 goals. During the month of October, the average goals scored has been just over 7, and the average goals conceded just over 5 across the last seven years. Chart A: 2008/09 Season – Points Average 1.5 points per game 2009/10 Season – Points Average 1.0 point per game 2010/11 Season – Points Average 2.5 points per game 2011/12 Season – Points Average 1.0 point per game 2012/13 Season – Points Average 1.5 points per game 2013/14 Season – Points Average 2.0 points per game 7 Year October Average – 1.36 PPG Chart B: 2008/09 Season – 7 goals for, 7 goals against 2009/10 Season – 5 goals for, 5 goals against 2010/11 Season – 16 goals for, 7 goals against 2011/12 Season – 5 goals for, 5 goals against 2012/13 Season – 9 goals for, 5 goals against 2013/14 Season – 9 goals for, 8 goals against 7 Year Average – 7.3 goals for, 5.3 goals against Crowd Surfing It’s not just the on-pitch performance that matters to the Board as it looks to drive the club forward. In Season 2010/11 the average league home gate increased to being comfortably over 100 on a regular basis. Over the last four years that regular records have been maintained for home fixtures, we can see an increasing trend (Chart C). Note: the 2010/11 average spiked owing to a free-admission day. Chart C: 2010/11 – 204 2011/12 – 155 2012/13 – 169 2013/14 – 319 A Tram, a Docker and a Dere… During October, The Wells currently have two home league games and one away. Let’s take a closer look at the opposition the club faces this month, beginning with corresponding fixtures down the years. Table A: Before transferring to the Combined Counties League in 2009, the last time The Wells played at Croydon a 1-0 win during Mike Robbins’ reign put the club top of the league for a few days for the first time in many years. Joe Fuller scored the only goal of that match, and it would be a few more years before that summit would be experienced again. Both The Trams and Erith Town have struggled for the early part of this campaign. After winning their opening two fixtures Croydon have endured a winless run leading into October. Both sides will both be looking to improve on disappointing starts by their own standards, which will undoubtedly make for two keenly contested matches. Our home encounters with Erith Town have certainly tended to produce goals down the years, even though the outcomes have been mixed. Table-topping Erith & Belvedere, meanwhile have hit the ground running after falling through the Ryman League trapdoor at the end of last season. Records show they’ve found Culverden a fairly happy hunting ground in the past, so this will be a real test of how this Tunbridge Wells squad is developing as to whether they will be able to put a stick in the spokes of The Deres’ band-waggon as it maintains a steady course back from whence it came. It could be argued the pressure is on The Deres to retain their form – but how will The Wells respond to the challenge of slowly reeling the pace-setters in over the next several months? They’re experienced enough to stand up under the challenge but as already established, if the gap is to remain bridgeable for much longer it’s all in the consistency…

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